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Prices of All Fertilizer Products Are Rising

 

   Prices of all fertilizer products in Chinese market are surging. Urea and SOP has reached the highest price in 2010 and price of MAP and DAP has increased to the high level as well. Analysts think that domestic fertilizer prices will keep the rising trend in short and middle term, especially for phosphate and potash. The trend won’t be changed until 1st of January in the next year when producers will have less pressure on energy saving and emission reduction. At the beginning of next year, the operating rate will increase while there will be less order for export, which will bring the price to reasonable level.

     Mr. Zhang Ming, the analyst of ChemNet, analyzes the main factors influencing domestic fertilizer market in general as following:

     At first, many provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi and Jiangsu follow the policy to save energy and reduce emission, and to limit electricity utility, which leads to low operating rate. Second, demand on urea, MAP, DAP in international market is so strong that the trading price influences domestic selling price. Third, it is the time when tariff in slack season is followed. Domestic nitrogen and phosphate producers arrange for the export as priority. At last, reserve in slack season has been allotted to the enterprises who win the bidding.

     The busy season for using fertilizers has finished now. Only fertilizer dealers are purchasing fertilizers in the market. In recent two months, fertilizer production declined because of electricity limit in most provinces. There are few inventories by urea, DAP, MAP and NPK producers. Meanwhile, transportation has been impacted by the flood in June and July. Therefore, lack of inventories causes rise in price, commercial speculation and active purchase in short time.

     Forecast: Some analysts predict that domestic fertilizer prices will go on rising stably in mid-term. Prices of MAP, DAP, SOP and NPK may increase largely. Price of 58% powdery MAP is expected to increase to RMB 2900-3000/t, price of 64% DAP may surge to RMB 3400-3500/t, and RMB 3700-3800/t for 50% powdery SOP. However, the prices of urea and NPK may turn to decline in one month. Besides, it is expected that the fertilizer market will become silent after 1st of January of 2011 because of production back to normal and fewer export orders.

(Source: China Agri-Production News)

 


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